Ugesi, amandla amasha, kungadoba nezidladla zebhere zibe nakho kokubili

Ngo-2035, isilinganiso semakethe kagesi yaseShayina sizodlula esaseMelika neYurophu kuhlangene, futhi izinga lemakethe yegesi yemvelo lizofana nelase-United States, okuzophoqa uhulumeni waseShayina ukuthi asheshise ukuthuthukiswa kwemakethe entsha. imithombo yamandla.

Ezinsukwini ezimbalwa ezedlule, inkampani yomhlaba wonke yocwaningo nokuhlaziya izimakethe i-IHS ikhiphe umbiko wocwaningo othi ngo-2035, izinga lemakethe kagesi laseChina lizodlula eleMelika neYurophu kuhlangene, nobukhulu bemakethe yegesi yemvelo buzofana. kuleyo yemakethe yaseMelika, nayo ephoqa uhulumeni waseShayina ukuthi asheshise ukuthuthukiswa kwamandla amasha. Mayelana nezintengo zamandla aphezulu alindelekile nezindleko, i-IHS ikholelwa ukuthi i-China ingathuthukisa izinsiza zamandla ahlanzekile ngaphandle kokukhuphula amanani kagesi.

Ukuthuthukiswa kwamandla amasha sekuseduze

Eminyakeni eyi-10 edlule, umnotho waseShayina uthuthuke kakhulu, futhi izinga lokukhula kwawo selidlule kude elamanye amazwe. Ukwakhiwa kwengqalasizinda yayo kagesi nakho sekuzuze intuthuko enhle, ephindeke kathathu esikhathini esifanayo. Ukukhula kuqhamuke kakhulu ekuphehleni kukagesi ngamalahle. Nokho, njengoba isidingo siqhubeka sikhuphuka, izinkinga zamanje zendawo ezungezile kanye nezinkinga zokungcoliswa komoya emadolobheni seziseduze, okuphoqa uhulumeni ukuba acabangele ukwamukela imithombo yamandla ehlanzekile.

I-IHS isanda kuphothula ucwaningo mayelana nezimo zentuthuko zesikhathi esizayo zezimakethe zegesi yemvelo kanye nogesi ezifundazweni zaseChina. Umbiko wocwaningo unesihloko esithi "Ukuxazulula i-Tangram" (ukuhunyushwa kwesiShayina "Ukuxazulula i-Tangram", ehlola ukuphakelwa kwamandla, isidingo, izindleko, nokuthi izintengo zizozithinta kanjani izinqubomgomo kanye nentuthuko yesikhathi esizayo yemboni yamandla yaseShayina.

Ngokombiko, umthwalo kagesi waseShayina ukhule kakhulu eminyakeni eyi-10 edlule, wengeza u-80GW wamandla afakiwe njalo ngonyaka, futhi umthamo omusha ofakiwe njalo ngemva kweminyaka emine ulingana nomthamo wamanje ofakiwe waseJapane, umthengi wamandla wesithathu ngobukhulu emhlabeni. . Njengoba ukuphehlwa kukagesi ngamalahle kubangela iningi lamandla asanda kufakwa, isisi esikhishwa yizimboni zikagesi sibangele ukuwohloka okukhulu kwezinga lomoya ezingxenyeni eziningi zaseShayina kanye nokwenyuka okukhulu kwamandla kagesi, futhi izikhalazo zomphakathi sezigcwalisiwe.

Izinguquko zisaqhubeka. I-IHS ibikezela ukuthi ukulungiswa kwesakhiwo esimweni somnotho kanye nokwenza ngcono ukonga kukagesi kuzonciphisa ukukhula okuzayo kwesidingo sikagesi. I-IHS isebenzisa izindlela zokuhlaziya isimo ukuze ibikezele izimakethe zezifundazwe namadolobha aseShayina ngezimo ezintathu. Ngaphansi kwesimo sokukhula komnotho okuqhubekayo, izinga lokukhula kwesidingo samandla saminyaka yonke saseShayina kusukela ngowezi-2012 kuya kowezi-2035 lizoba ngama-4.1%, okuyisilinganiso kuphela seminyaka eyi-10 edlule. 1/3 yezinga lokukhula. Kodwa uma sibheka umhlaba, lokhu kukhula kusenamandla kakhulu, ngoba isisekelo sokufunwa sikhula njalo. Ngo-2026, isidingo sikagesi saseShayina sizophindeka kabili uma siqhathaniswa nowezi-2012, kanti inani likagesi eliphelele lizodlula isamba se-United States ne-Europe ngo-2035.

I-IHS ikholelwa ukuthi lokhu kusho ukuthi i-China kufanele iqhubeke nokutshala imali ekwakhiweni kwengqalasizinda entsha yokuphakelwa kukagesi, kuyilapho ithuthukisa ubuchwepheshe bamandla ahlanzekile ahlukahlukene, obufana negesi, umoya kanye nokuphehla ugesi welanga. Nakuba izindleko zalobu buchwepheshe obusha ziphezulu kunezezimboni eziphehla ugesi ngamalahle, ukuqwashisa okuqhubekayo kokuvikelwa kwemvelo emphakathini wonke kuzokhuthaza ukukhula ngokushesha kwalezi zindlela zobuchwepheshe ezihlanzekile, ikakhulukazi ezifundazweni nasemadolobheni asogwini anemali ephezulu. Thatha igesi yemvelo njengesibonelo. Ngenxa yezindleko eziphakeme zokuphehlwa kukagesi ngegesi kanye nokushoda kwemithombo yegesi, okwamanje ibamba ama-2% kuphela okukhiqiza ugesi waseShayina. Nokho, amandla afakiwe amayunithi amasha aphehla igesi azohlala enesivinini esikhulu. Njengamanje, inani lamayunithi aphehlwa ngegesi asakhiwayo futhi ahlelwayo ezweni selidlule ama-kilowatts ayizigidi ezingama-30, elilingana nelase-United States. Ngo-2035, ukusetshenziswa kwegesi yemvelo ekukhiqizeni amandla kulindeleke ukuthi kukhuphuke ngokuphindwe kashumi.

Ungaba nazo zombili izidladla zezinhlanzi nebhere

Ngakho-ke abantu abaningi bakhathazekile ngokuthi ukwanda kwenani lale mithombo yamandla ebiza kakhulu ohlelweni lwamandla kungase kuholele ekwenyukeni kwezindleko zokuphehla ugesi, ngaleyo ndlela kubeka ingcindezi emananini kagesi ukuthi akhuphuke kakhulu. Nokho, ucwaningo lwe-IHS lwe-"Unlocking Tangram" lubonisa ukuthi ukuqhubeka nokungena kwala mandla amasha nobuchwepheshe ngeke kukhuphule isilinganiso sezindleko zokuphehlwa kukagesi eChina. "Ukwenyuka kwezindleko zikaphethiloli, ukuthembela okwandayo ekuthengeni amandla avela kwamanye amazwe, kanye nokunganeliseki kwabantu okwandayo ngekhwalithi yezemvelo yizo zonke izinkinga uhulumeni okufanele azilungise. Kodwa kubatshalizimali, kubaluleke kakhulu ukuqonda ukuthi iChina akufanele ithathwe njengemakethe yezaMandla eyodwa." kusho uZhou Xizhou, inhloko nenhloko ye-IHS China Energy Research.

Izifundazwe eziningi e-China zilingana nezwe elilodwa e-European Union noma isifunda sase-United States ngesibalo sabantu, isikali somnotho, nesikali sesistimu yamandla. Isibonelo, amandla okukhiqiza amandla afakiwe eSifundazweni sase-Guangxi acishe alingane nomthamo ofakiwe waseNetherlands; ukusetshenziswa kwamalahle esifundazweni esisogwini saseJiangsu kucishe kulingane nesidingo samalahle saseCanada. Kukhona negebe elikhulu emithonjeni yamafutha kanye namanani entengo phakathi kwezifundazwe. Isibonelo, intengo yamanje yokudayisa yegesi yemvelo e-Ningxia, isifundazwe esisenyakatho-ntshonalanga, icishe ilingane nengxenye ye-Beijing.

UZhou Xizhou ukholelwa ukuthi: "Imakethe yamandla phakathi kwezifundazwe zaseShayina izophinde ihlukaniswe, ibonise umehluko wezinsiza, izindawo zezwe, nezigaba zokuthuthukiswa komnotho."

UZhou Xizhou uthe, "I-China ibheka indlela yokuthuthukisa amandla ukuze inciphise ukuncika kohlelo lukagesi emalahleni futhi isebenzise ubuchwepheshe bamandla ahlanzekile, isungule imakethe enkulu yegesi yemvelo ukuze kuqinisekiswe ukutholakala kwamandla anele, futhi inethemba lokugcina amanani kagesi. Hhayi ukukhuphuka kakhulu ukukhuthaza ukukhula komnotho okusimeme. “Ucwaningo lwethu lukhombisa ukuthi ukuqhubeka nokuthuthukiswa kwezinsiza ezishibhile ezifana nogesi ophehlwa ngamanzi kuzonciphisa ingcindezi yokukhuphuka kwezindleko ezidalwa wubuchwepheshe bokuphehla ugesi obumba eqolo njengegesi yemvelo namandla elanga. Ngakho-ke, ukuphishekela umoya ohlanzekile ngeke kuholele ekutheni amanani kagesi anyuke. E-China, izinhlanzi nezidladla zebhere zingaba nakho kokubili. "Kusho uZhou Xizhou.